Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Is cold war heading our way?

In the news today: NATO to "impose" economic sanctions on Russia, well not actually sanctions per se, but downgrade Russia on its "Morale" scale. Why is that?
The obvious reason is due to its recent -defensive- attack on Georgia. So let us jump directly to the facts:

1 - South Ossetia gained its de facto independence in the early 90s
2 - Georgia on its quest to join NATO and thus obliged to resolve all its internal conflicts (and not willing to recognize South Ossetias independence). The most radical, but maybe most effective solution was to fire a few thousands rounds of ammunition on civilians in hope to regain their loyalty through fear.
3 - Russia, standing by, watching how heads were flying from the shoulders of innocent civilians decided to intervene. Rockets were being fired from the other side of the border, so a small invasion was inevitable in order to stop the fires.
4 - Russia is accused of invading a sovereign country, but not Georgia, its tanks were standing on the other side of the border.
5 - In mass media Georgia's aggression is placed on the back shelf, as though it never happened and world leaders continue to encourage it to join their North Atlantic Alliance.

Now the questions:

1 - Why did the US aknowledge Kosovo's independence, but not South Ossetias's?
2 - Why did the UN exclude the clause "prohibiting the use of force against breaking away republics"?
3 - Why did nobody listen to the Russian representative at the UN council concerning the domino effect after Kosovo's independence?
4 - US is talking about infringement of the sovereign rights, and what has it been doing in Iraq for the past 6 years?
5 - Who attacked South Ossetia?

As one ancient Greek philosopher once said: It is much more difficult to find a good question that the answer to it

US is in favor of a free market economy, competition and everything that come included, but is concerned about rising energy prices, slowing down of its economy and the rising of new super powers. So the best strategy is to place a few missiles in the east and in a few decades use the power of military pressure to obtain the desired effects (including violation of rights of sovereign states).
"It is sad that say, but a new political and military game is coming our way"

So what investment strategy could one adopt to make some money on this?
1 - Short everything
2 - Buy a few Put Options on the stock indices's of conflicting countries (US, Russia, Germany, France and any other developed country). For example there are some at-the-money put options on the NASDAQ index (ticker QQQQ), with strike price 48, strike date 2010 and selling for 6.11 USD.
3 - Long some Gas futures as disruption of Russian supply is unavoidable and the prices are already pretty low.

0 comments: