1 - A significant spread has appeared between Crude and Gas future contracts (traded on NYMEX), and appears to be short-term deviation from the rational: Rises in Crude prices should contribute to rises in Gas prices and not vice-versa. When one energy source raises in price, consumers and producers should tend to prefer the cheaper source thus raising its price to higher levels through higher demand. A possible explanation for current situation is either due to high speculation in crude contracts or large lately discovered gas reserves.
The logical continuation would be for the spread Crude / Gas contracts to shrink.
Trading strategy: Short Crude contracts & Long Gas Contracts
2 - After a few harsh comments by Mr. Puting directed to the CEO of SG Mechel (a Russian Mining company) drove its shares by ~50% and what seems to be a clear overreaction by the market. Link: http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=MTLR%3ARTS
Trading strategy: Long MTLR:RTS
3 - The US sub prime crisis has lifted overall risk aversion in the country and in fact around the world. This has led to increases in credit (risk) spreads priced into bonds across all the spectrum of ratings. This might be reasonable for junk / high yield bonds, but unrealistic for investment grade, especially the ones high above on the rating ladder (AAA and AA+).
Trading strategy: Short US treasury bills & Long AAA corporate bonds with ~1 year maturity
Monday, August 18, 2008
Crude, Gas spread || MTLR:RTS || High Risk Premium
Posted by D.S. at 11:38 PM
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